Mixed Feelings
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election shocked the Balkans, much as it did the rest of the world. Yet the region is divided in its response.
Albanians across the region are saddened that Clinton, their perceived friend and backer, has lost. US allies worry what it might mean for NATO. Most Serbs and many Macedonians and Montenegrins find hope that US policy towards their countries might change for the better under President Trump. For Serbia’s ultra-nationalist opposition politician Vojislav Seselj, seen by many as the Balkan Trump, the election’s outcome is evidence that he too has a winning chance in Serbia’s presidential elections in 2017.
Read more: Trump Triumph Celebrated and Mourned in Balkans (Nov. 9, 2016)
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Tussling AwayWho is the real owner of companies built in Kosovo during the Yugoslav era? This is just one of the many on-going disputes between Kosovo and Serbia. With both Belgrade and Pristina claiming ownership over these companies, Pristina’s attempts to privatise them are running into problems. We look in greater detail at the history of the dispute and what is really behind it. Read more: Kosovo and Serbia Tussle Over Yugoslav Assets (Nov. 7, 2016)
Not So SecretWith Macedonia’s much awaited and several times delayed Parliamentary elections a month away, a new survey finds that a striking 40% of Macedonian citizens believe that the authorities have ways of knowing who they voted for. Is this possible? We look at why many ordinary Macedonians think so. But regardless of the answer, it may, in fact, suit the authorities for voters to believe that their vote is not secret. Read more: Macedonians Fear Their Votes Are Far From Secret (Nov. 7, 2016)
Blond BombshellWhat advice can the lead ‘Brexiteer’ and Foreign Secretary of a country trying to leave the EU give to the leaders of a country trying to join the EU? This is the question that poses itself as British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson visits Belgrade. While many in Serbia, including some in the government, perceive Johnson as a friend of Serbia, our editor Marcus Tanner sounds a note of caution
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| Trump waves to his supporters after giving his acceptance speech during his election night rally on Wednesday. Photo: AP Photo/John Locher. |
No U-Turn Ahead?
For Serbs across the Balkans, Hillary Clinton is a living symbol of US foreign policy during the 1990s, which they see as having been directed against their interests. Hence their support for Trump, who, they hope, will radically alter US foreign policy.
Yet as veteran journalist Milan Misic writes, it is naïve to expect any U-turns in US foreign policy towards Serbia, or the region. For one thing, US foreign policy is not shaped in an institutional vacuum by one man. Perhaps more importantly, the US has much more important foreign policy problems and priorities than the Balkans.
Read more: Don’t Expect Balkan U-Turns From Trump Presidency (Nov. 9, 2016)
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| From 2003-2005 CIA ran a ‘black site’ detention centre in Romania, where the US Central Intelligence Agency tortured high-value prisoners of the ‘War on Terror’. Photo Illustration: Justin Norman/Flickr |
Still Dodging
Despite the considerable evidence that the CIA ran clandestine detention centres in Romania, where prisoners of the ‘war on terror’ were tortured, the Romanian government continues to bury its head in the sand, denying that anything of the sort ever happened.
Could this be about to change? A case before the European Court of Human Rights in which Romania is being sued by a former detainee of a CIA ‘black site’ could result in the country being forced to pay compensation. It may also force the government to admit the existence of such sites, and, just as interestingly, who benefitted from payments made by the CIA as gratitude for Romania’s hospitality.
Read more: Romania Still Dodging Accountability for CIA Torture Site (Nov. 10, 2016)
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| The Emperor’s mosque in Sarajevo, which was built during the Ottoman era. Photo: Wikimedia/Julian Nitzsche |
Imported Divides
Could the bitter divisions between the Sunnis and Shias of the Middle East be about to surface in Bosnia?
Many will perhaps be surprised to learn that Bosnia has a Shia community at all. Much like Wahhabism, Shia Islam reached Bosnia during the 1990s thanks, in large part, to fighters from the Middle East who came to the aid of their religious kin and staid. Now the conflicts of the Middle East may be coming to haunt them in Bosnia.
Read more: Concerns Grow over Bosnian Shia-Sunni Divide (Nov. 9, 2016)
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| Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic. Photo: BETA/Darko Vojinovic/AP |
Backsliding
The last twelve months have seen numerous examples of the democratic backsliding that has been going on since the SNS came to power. Media independence has continued to be undermined and there were credible accusations of electoral fraud during April’s Parliamentary elections. And while the votes of that election were being counted masked men illegally demolished most of the properties along a Belgrade street to make way for a real-estate development, showing that, when it suited someone’s interests, the rule of law could temporarily be suspended.
Ahead of the publication of the latest EU Progress Reports, Marko Kmezic calls on the EU to pay greater attention to the state of democracy in accession countries.
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| Serbian PM Aleksandar Vucic. Photo: Beta. |
State of Emergency
Last week’s news from Serbia could easily be turned into a spy thriller by one of the classics of the genre, John le Carré.
An arms stash found close to the parental home of Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, a possible attempt on Vucic’s life, or perhaps that of his brother? Spies of the East and West roaming the country. A state of emergency was never declared, but in many ways an undeclared one has been going on in Serbia since 2012. We look back at the twists and turns that brought us to the latest culmination in this drama.